Cotton: international trade stems 2015/16 decline

By

Matthieu Guinebault

Published
Jun 9, 2015

Having fallen by 12% during the 2014/2015 season, cotton imports are expected to see a 2% increase during the 2015/16 fiscal year. The increase may even reach 3% if China is excluded, as its immense stock is continuing to curtail production, according to the ICAC.
 

Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia appear to be the 3 biggest importers after China, demand having risen for their growing textile industries. And while Bangladesh is projected to remain stable, importing 1 million tons, Vietnam is forecasted to increase by 6% to 927,000 tons, and Indonesia by 4% to 800,000 tons.

The slow recovery of imports and its impact on prices has significantly affected cotton production. Cotton area should once more fall by 7% to 31.3 million hectares, after a 9% fall from the previous year. China should see its production area to fall by 12%. 

In terms of consumption, the ICAC expects a 2% increase for 2015/16, following a 3% increase experienced in 2014/15. Over the course of the year, some 7.7 million tons should be consumed during the next season in China, followed by India (5.4 million) and Pakistan (2.6%). Global stock should, meanwhile, fall for the first time since 2010/11, with a 5% contraction to 20.8 million tons.