USDA forecasts 2016/17 global cotton output at 102.5mn bales

In its September report, USDA has forecast world cotton production in 2016/17 at 102.5 million bales, marginally above its August forecast, but 6 per cent higher than the previous season’s crop of 96.4 million bales. Global cotton use in 2016/17 is forecast at 111.2 million bales, 1 percent higher than the 110.1 million bales in the prior two seasons.

For India, the 2016/17 crop of 26.5 million bales is near that of last season, but cotton area is forecast to drop more than 8 per cent. However, prospects for higher yields are projected to keep India’s output stable.

In China, although a record yield of 1,633 kg per hectare is forecast for 2016/17, China’s 2016/17 cotton crop is projected at only 21 million bales, the lowest production estimate since 2000/01.

According to USDA, Pakistan’s production is estimated to rise to nearly 8.3 million bales in 2016/17 based on a rebound in yields that are forecast above average at 748 kg per hectare.

The top five cotton consuming countries, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Bangladesh are projected to account for a combined 74 per cent of 2016/17 world cotton mill consumption.