Cotton production outside of China to touch 19mn tons

High prices prevailing this season would boost cotton sowing, resulting in production outside of China to grow by 5 per cent to 19 million tons in 2017-18. In 2016-17 season, production outside of China is estimated up by 10 per cent to 18 million tons. 2016/17 represents the second consecutive season where mill use has exceeded production.

In India, cotton area is forecast to expand by 7 per cent to 11.3 million hectares, and assuming yield is similar to the 4-year average of 528 kg/ha, production could increase by 3 per cent to 6 million tons in 2017-18, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

In the US, farmers are projected to expand cotton area to 4.6 million hectares with production expected to rise by 12 per cent to 4.2 million tons.

Pakistan’s cotton production is projected to increase by 13, and if high prices continue through the end of 2017, cotton production in Brazil could increase to 1.5 million tons. “Given that cotton production is projected to grow in the large consuming countries the need to import cotton will likely decrease,” ICAC said in its latest report.

After falling by 1 per cent to 16.5 million tons in 2016-17, mill use outside of China may increase by 2 per cent to 16.9 million tons in 2017-18 due to much stronger growth in the global economy in 2017 and 2018. Consumption in India is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 5.2 million tons in 2017-18 as prices for cotton and yarn are likely to be competitive due to the increase in supply. Pakistan’s mill use is expected to rise modestly by 1 per cent to 2.3 million tons as competition from other mills in Asia remains stiff. Consumption in Bangladesh is projected to rise by 5 per cent to 1.5 million tons while Turkey’s mill use is expected to decline by 15,000 tons to 1.4 million tons due to weak domestic demand.